A frantic SONA

16 February 2026 — What can we learn about the government’s priorities from the SONA? What does the IMF think of SA’s reform and growth prospects? What message did Marco Rubio send at the Munich Security Conference? How could Panyaza Lesufi’s water remarks return to haunt the ANC?

A frantic SONA

The CRA’s Chris Hattingh and Ofentse Davhie report back from President Cyril Ramaphosa’s 10^th State of the Nation Address (SONA) at the Cape Town City Hall.

Mr Ramaphosa began his speech by recalling history and past achievements, setting the scene by appealing to emotionalism and sentiment. He acknowledged problems but neglected to mention that his party was responsible for many of them.

He said: “For too many people, life remains hard. Jobs are scarce and opportunity is out of reach. South Africans are worried about violent crime and corruption. They are concerned at the state of local government and its inability to deliver basic services in many parts of the country. Above all, they are desperate for work and for an income to support their families.” He then correctly identified the solution: “For more than 15 years, our economy has experienced low growth. All our actions now are driven by the need for rapid and inclusive economic growth to create more jobs and better quality jobs.”

This scene having been set, he struck an almost frantic tone in the rest of his address, mentioning “growth” no fewer than 25 times and announcing a flurry of measures in what could be seen as a campaign speech for the 2026 local government elections.

For example, Mr Ramaphosa referred to water as “the single most important issue for many people in South Africa”, alongside crime. Accordingly, he directed the water minister to fix the problem; committed R156 billion in public funding for water infrastructure over the next three years; announced he was setting up a National Water Crisis Committee, chaired by himself; said the government had laid criminal charges against 56 municipalities and was preparing to lay charges against municipal managers in their personal capacity for violating the National Water Act; and announced a new R54 billion incentive for metros to reform their water, sanitation and electricity services.

The rest of the speech continued in a similar vein. The key takeaway is that the government is betting on spending a great deal of money — in addition to preferring centralisation over devolution — to address the country’s many problems. From water delivery to crime, to firearm ownership, foot and mouth disease, and BEE, the assumption is that presidential involvement and national oversight will cure all ills.

This is a naive approach, underpinned by the assumption that getting the “right” people in place and throwing money at the problems will fix them. However, that is not going to work while the ruleset that produced the dysfunction — the ideological and policy frameworks that incentivised crime and corruption, impunity and infrastructure decline — remains in place. Mr Ramaphosa gave little indication that the ruleset was going to be changed, instead doubling down on race-based policies and state-led interventionism.

Conceptually, this can be interpreted as a government trying to tighten its grip as it feels its power slipping away. The slippage is real and observable, and the protagonists are aware of it. In response they tighten their iron fists further; but this just accelerates the slippage.

SA exposed and vulnerable — IMF

In a report released last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted the major risks to South Africa’s economic prospects as including weaker global growth driven by geopolitical tensions, rising trade barriers, and prolonged policy uncertainty. It upgraded South Africa’s growth forecast slightly, from 1.1% to 1.3% in 2025, and from 1.2% to 1.4% in 2026.

Amidst global factors affecting South Africa’s growth prospects, the IMF drew attention to the slow pace of domestic reforms. It cited “product- and labour-market rigidities, spatial disparities, governance weaknesses, inadequate infrastructure and elevated public debt” as chief impediments to domestic growth and capital formation. It also noted “burdensome government regulations, especially for licensing and permitting, weak procurement practices and limited competition” as risks to business confidence and investment that stifled innovation.

While South Africa’s debt-to-GDP ratio was forecast to peak and decline from this year into 2027, the IMF flagged the risk that a less friendly global environment could elevate borrowing costs and ratchet up the pressure on National Treasury and the government. As the report puts it, “an abrupt correction in global financial markets could lead to tighter domestic financial conditions, and high global and domestic fiscal vulnerabilities could result in higher public-sector borrowing costs.”

In recent years South Africa has invested much in the “developmental state” model. The IMF assesses that this model has “reached its limits”. Therefore, for growth and job creation to take off, the private sector must become the primary engine of economic activity: “Unlocking the potential of the private sector through more ambitious structural reforms remains the only viable option.”

Tough love in Rubio’s Valentine’s Day speech

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s address at the Munich Security Conference last Saturday was widely read in Europe as damage control after a year of transatlantic shocks.

In a notably warmer tone, he reaffirmed that the US “belongs together” with Europe, even while insisting that the post-Cold War settlement produced shared “delusions”: deindustrialisation driven by globalised supply chains, welfare politics crowding out defence spending, climate-policy dogmatism, and mass migration that weakens social cohesion.

He argued that the decline was a choice, urged reindustrialisation, border control, and reform of institutions such as the United Nations. He also sketched a forward-leaning agenda in areas like Artificial Intelligence and strategic supply chains.

From a US perspective, the speech revealed a geopolitics of unapologetic realism: decline is a policy choice, not inevitability; globalism must yield to national interests; the West must reclaim pride to deter “civilizational erasure”. This signalled a muscular, sovereignty-centric worldview, prioritising self-reliant allies over dependent ones.

The hall response was visibly positive, with several leaders calling the tone reassuring. But commentary also stressed the conditional nature of the offer (“on Trump’s terms”) and the lack of concrete commitments. Separately, some critics, especially online, highlighted lines in the speech that cast “Western empires” in nostalgic terms, reading this as a hint of neo-imperial ambition rather than simple alliance renewal.

The Trump administration has little time for such complaints. Its focus is on performance and the ability to deliver. In this worldview, countries like South Africa are dismissed as unserious and unimportant if they cannot demonstrate economic, diplomatic and military prowess. In contrast, laments about unfair treatment, and demands to be respected as a moral superpower and leading voice of the Global South, will fall on deaf ears.

Livin’ it up with Lesufi

The Johannesburg water crisis could prove to be a key political theme of 2026. It is a hot issue in South Africa’s largest and economically most important city and could help determine who takes control of it in the local government elections, which are less than a year off.

Last week, the Democratic Alliance (DA) announced it would be taking legal action against the City of Johannesburg (COJ) and Johannesburg Water to force action on crumbling infrastructure. According to the party, the municipality had adopted a turnaround plan to address the water issues but had not implemented it. The DA now wants the courts to force the COJ to enact its strategy.

While the DA — and its mayoral candidate in Johannesburg, Helen Zille — is adroitly using the water crisis to side with residents and highlight the failings of its political rivals in Johannesburg, one of those rivals, the African National Congress (ANC), is doing itself no favours. Last week, while residents were becoming increasingly frustrated as many areas remained without water, the Johannesburg mayor, Dada Morero, along with  the Gauteng premier, Panyaza Lesufi, held a briefing with residents and the press.

Mr Lesufi’s remarks included the following slip: “I also experience water shortages, and in certain instances, I had to go to a certain hotel so that I could bathe and go to my commitments. We also go through the same inconvenience like any other person — there’s not special water or a special time that is designed to service other people.”

The remarks were widely criticised for being callous and out of touch. Mr Lesufi later issued an apology, but such messaging will not endear him or his party to the voters. It may cost the party its control of South Africa’s economic capital.