Risk Alert

100 days of the GNU

7 October 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with an assessment of the Government of National Unity at the 100-day mark. Next, we unpack the key takeaways from the Social Research Foundation’s latest survey. We then analyse the relationship between organised business and government, and the associated risks thereof. Positive signals from the manufacturing sector follow. In our penultimate section we highlight the risk of potential upcoming labour strikes and disruptions, before closing with a look at water supply challenges in eThekwini.

Early tremors signalling a seismic shift?

14 October 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert we cover the following topics. We begin with positive signs of a possible broader shift in government rhetoric, policy, and legislation. Next, the City of Tshwane has a new mayor. Thereafter we continue with our recent analysis of water infrastructure challenges in Gauteng, as well as detection of cholera in sections of the Harts and lower Vaal Rivers. We close with a look at the rocky start for the Starmer administration in the UK.

Red berets in trouble

21 October 2024 - This week: where to next for the EFF? We preview the upcoming MTBPS and assess the global interest rate outlook. We close with a look at Sudan, and at the SA government's stance on Taiwan.

GNU partners divided over foreign policy

28 October 2024 – This week, we ask: what are the implications of GNU divisions over foreign policy? We also look at the latest inflation numbers, preview the impact of EU carbon import tariffs, and assess the results of the Mozambican election.

MTBPS highlights low-growth threat

4 November 2024 – This week, we ask: will Cabinet concede that faster economic growth requires politically difficult reforms? Positive signs for SA's greylisting emerge but in manufacturing, ArcelorMittal's KZN plant faces closure. Botswana elects its sixth president, and global corporate giants shun DEI initiatives.

Trump comes roaring back

11 November 2024 - In this week's Risk Alert we ask: What does the re-election of Donald Trump mean for South Africa? We review the latest US interest rate cut and analyse the ongoing exodus of high-ranking EFF members. Given the spat between Eskom and the City of Johannesburg, we ask: will Johannesburg experience a dark Christmas? We close with a look at the collapse of Germany’s coalition government.

The NHI elephant in the room

18 November 2024: In this week's Risk Alert, we ask: Will the NHI's implementation spell doom for the GNU? Does a lower unemployment rate signal greater change? How can South Africa’s sovereign credit rating be improved? And, what can be gleaned from US president-elect Donald Trump’s “recess” cabinet picks?

A view from the US

25 November 2024 - This week, we ask: How will Trump's return affect SA? Can the country capitalise on its G20 leadership? What's causing turmoil in the State Security Agency? Why is the SARB cautious amid low inflation? What's troubling Gauteng businesses, despite rising confidence?

A new kind of minister

2 December 2024 - This week, we ask: What are the implications of Parks Tau’s disagreement with the Competition Tribunal? We look into Johannesburg’s water situation and South Africa’s public procurement systems. We close with a look at Donald Trump’s messaging on international trade.

The sugar high runs out

9 December 2024 - Is GNU growth optimism justified after poor GDP data? How does Ramaphosa's reshuffle impact leadership credibility? Will Namibia’s disputed elections heighten regional risk? Why is South Korea’s democracy under global scrutiny?

Will the GNU stand the test?

16 December 2024 – This week, we ask: Will the GNU stand the test? Will MK build on its successes and will the EFF find a way to halt its decline?

The world braces for Trump 2.0

6 January 2025 - How will Trump 2.0 reshape global trade and South Africa’s AGOA access? Can the ANC survive municipal woes and internal divisions? Will Transnet reforms get economic growth back on track? Are African debt burdens driving new risks for businesses? Is the US solidifying its lead over China economically?

(Audio) CRA_Risk_Alert_2025_01_06.mp3

Corroded steel

13 January 2025 — What does the closing of ArcelorMittal’s long steel plants mean for the economy? What does the ANC’s January 8th statement tell us about the prospects for reform and GNU longevity? How will US and SA economic dynamics play out in the currency market? Where to next for Mozambique?

The US starts flexing its muscles

20 January 2025 - Will the second Trump administration prove more effective than the first? Can the Gauteng provincial government fix the finances? Do South Africa’s youth have a viable future? How will Germany’s domestic growth woes impact South African exporters?

(Audio) CRA_Risk_Alert_20250120.mp3

Ramaphosa drops the EWC bomb

27 January 2025: What do the government’s broad new expropriation powers mean for South Africa? What are the implications of the Transformation Fund mooted by the trade and industry minister? What is the future of the GNU in the face of ANC intransigence? In which direction is Donald Trump pointing the United States?

Ramaphosa drops the EWC bomb

Let the tariff wars begin

3 February 2025 - How will Trump’s tariff wars US consumers and SA markets? Is SA at Magnitsky risk for anti-Israel stance? According to IMF, is SA using GNU opportunity? After DRC disaster, SA restore its military credibility?

(Audio) CRA_Risk_Alert_2025_02_03.mp3

Washington plays hardball

10 February 2025: Does South Africa have an AGOA future? Can South Africa adapt its geopolitical positioning? Will MK make it to the 2026 municipal polls? Did President Ramaphosa’s SONA deliver the goods?

Trouble in the House of MK

17 February 2025 - Has MK’s time run out? Is the ANC back on track to 50%? Will the NHI be implemented? Does SA have an AGOA future? Is Johannesburg’s Day Zero around the corner?

(Audio) CRA_Risk_Alert_2025_02_17.mp3

Budget hits a brick wall

24 February 2025: Does the postponed budget portend the end of the GNU? Can South Africa escape its low-growth trap? Will G20 Summit upgrades fix service delivery issues in Johannesburg? Can the ANC arrest its electoral decline in Gauteng?

CR pulls the tiger's tail

3 March 2025 - Will the US impose sanctions against South African political leaders? Is SA’s G20 presidency the answer to the country’s growth problem? Has the balance of power shifted in the GNU? Can a new coalition government in Germany cure the sick man of Europe?