2026: US kicks off with fireworks

12 January 2026: Why did the US intervene in Venezuela? Why is the US reshaping the international order? - Will the regime in Iran survive? Can the ANC reform before the Local Government Elections?

2026: US kicks off with fireworks

Globally, 2026 kicked off with a bang. On 3 January, United States (US) forces arrested  Venezuelan leader, Nicolás Maduro, in a pre-dawn raid that caught the world by surprise, with reports placing the seizure at or near the strongly secured Fuerte Tiuna military base in Caracas.

Mr Maduro, who had ruled Venezuela since 2013 and maintained his grip on power after the controversial 2024 presidential election, was initially indicted by the US Department of Justice on narco-terrorism and cocaine trafficking conspiracy  in 2020. He pleaded not guilty in a New York federal court on 5 January.

Mr Maduro has been succeeded by the vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, as acting president. Ms Rodriguez is a hardcore loyalist sanctioned for human rights violations by the US, Canada and European states. The Venezuelan government’s secret police, the Bolivarian National Intelligence Service (SEBIN), reports to the vice presidency.

Following the operation, US President Donald  Trump said: “The future will be determined by the ability to protect commerce and territory and resources that are core to national security.” Indications are that initially, the US will seek to control Venezuelan governance and resources by keeping the Rodriguez government on a short leash, rather than by pursuing outright regime change.

The Trump administration has warned of further military action and has also taken steps to assert control over the Venezuelan oil trade. Venezuela depends on oil for over 90% of its export earnings and around half of government revenue. The country holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, at an estimated 303 billion barrels, about 17% of the global total.

US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said that the US would be pursuing a three-step approach to Venezuela, aimed at first stabilising the country, then conducting a recovery phase to rebuild its economy and especially its oil industry with US and Western oil companies, before finally overseeing a political transition.

Brent crude is currently trading at around $63 per barrel. While boosting Venezuelan production will not happen overnight, in the medium term it should help expand global supplies and place downward pressure on oil prices.

Reshaping of the international order

The South African government under the leadership of the African National Congress (ANC) has long been sympathetic to Mr Maduro and his government. It has criticised the abduction of Mr Maduro, invoking the international rules-based order, lamenting the use of force by the US in interfering with the political independence of Venezuela, and reaffirming its support for non-interventionism and respect for the sovereignty of nations.

However, none of this is likely to impress the US government, which is redefining global politics at breakneck pace and on its own terms.

While Venezuelan oil dominated most headlines and analysis, the US operation also signals that the US will use military and other tools to weaken Chinese influence over foreign countries, especially in the Americas. The US has deemed that its economic and military capacities remain largely unmatched and will take the steps it considers necessary to further its interests, not only in the Western Hemisphere, but in key regions around the globe.

The South African government remains wedded to its concept of the international order of the past thirty years. That order is being rewritten and will soon no longer exist. If South Africa’s foreign policy establishment does not update its mental models, the country risks finding itself out of step with global events and being left behind by global developments.

The Trump administration has assessed that many US allies are incapable of security, military, and economic burden sharing in key regions around the world. It is thus taking on a more interventionist, proactive footing.

If it reforms accordingly, South Africa can be one of the countries on the African continent the US considers a responsible, valuable, and reliable ally. The economic, diplomatic, and security benefits would be substantial.

Rumbles in Iran

Meanwhile, Iran is gripped by the most intense anti-government protests in years, erupting in late December 2025 and spreading nationwide across all 31 provinces and to over 100 cities, including Tehran, Karaj, Qom, and Hamadan.

The Iranian government, with which the ANC-led South African government has maintained friendly relations, has responded with nationwide internet blackouts, deployment of security forces and live fire, stun grenades, and mass arrests.

Dozens of protesters have been killed, with over 2,300 detained, and clashes have resulted in deaths on both sides, including security personnel.

What began as demonstrations against crippling economic woes, including skyrocketing inflation, soaring prices for essentials, and a severe water crisis, has evolved into broader calls for regime change. President Masoud Pezeshkian has attempted economic concessions like subsidies, but these are seen as risky and insufficient amid stalled nuclear talks and reimposed UN-European sanctions alongside existing US sanctions.

Some analysts argue that these events point toward a potential tipping point for the Islamic Republic. Its survival is becoming questionable amid economic implosion and eroded legitimacy. While the regime has quelled unrest before, sustained protests, defections, and foreign pressure could lead to collapse or forced reforms.

We have previously highlighted in Third time lucky for the budget? the risks to South Africa arising from the close three-way ties between the ANC, cellular company MTN and Iran.

SA hosts naval exercise with Iran, Russia and China

South Africa is hosting a naval exercise under the BRICS Plus framework, with operational leadership by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), and participation from the navies of South Africa, Russia, and Iran. China’s leadership role, combined with the inclusion of Russia and Iran, signals growing military coordination among states positioned outside Western security frameworks.

For South Africa, hosting the exercise risks renewed scrutiny over its claimed non-aligned posture. Participation alongside sanctioned states may further complicate relations with the US and European partners, with potential spillover into defence co-operation, trade perceptions, and diplomatic engagement. Domestically, limited transparency around scope, cost, command arrangements, and rules of engagement increases political and reputational risk.

The sun is setting on the ANC

At its 114^th birthday celebrations during the weekend, the ANC showed itself unable to adapt to a rapidly changing world. Under the slogan “2026: Year of Decisive Action to Fix Local Government and Transform the Economy”, the party rehashed many of the same talking points it covered a decade ago, the last time it held its birthday party in the North West province.

The January 8 statement blames rural underdevelopment on apartheid and colonialism and hails the Constitution as a revolutionary tool for advancing the objectives of the National Democratic Revolution.

It sets “progressive and patriotic forces” six tasks for 2026: to fix local government, speed up economic transformation, combat crime and corruption, build South Africa through the National Dialogue and a social compact, pursue organisational renewal, and build “a better Africa and a better world”.

Given the experience of the past decade and longer, it seems unlikely that the ANC will complete these tasks.

To name one example, its economic growth plan is premised on infrastructure investment, industrial policy, improved service delivery, land reform, spatial planning, BEE and “supportive macroeconomic policies”. This is unchanged from what it has been for many years.

To name another, organisational renewal is to be achieved by “upholding the highest standards of excellence, integrity, humility, hard work and competence”, while the party is to be run “strictly, with zero tolerance of corruption, ill-discipline and factionalism”. Jaded South Africans will consider these aspirations to be ludicrously ambitious and completely out of reach.

The ANC enters 2026 confronting numerous challenges. Based on previous election results, polling by the CRA, Social Research Foundation, and Ipsos in 2025, and by-elections results across the country, one of the world’s oldest liberation movements should brace itself for a reckoning in the upcoming Local Government Elections (LGE). South Africa’s next LGEs must take place by January 2027 at the latest.