ANC bounces back, EFF crashes

23 June 2025 — What does the latest polling say about support for the largest political parties? Where will Floyd Shivambu go after leaving the MKP? Why is Toyota South Africa’s insurance company suing SA government entities? What’s the outlook for SA’s manufacturing sector? What’s next after the US strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities?

ANC bounces back, EFF crashes

After having polled around the 30% mark in earlier polls by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) and the Institute of Race Relations (IRR), the African National Congress (ANC) has recovered to the 40% support level in a June SRF poll released last week. That puts the party back at the same level it achieved in the 2024 election.

The June SRF poll reports the following support levels for the other political parties:

· Democratic Alliance (DA) at 26% (up 4 points)

· uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) at 18% (up 3.5 points)

· Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) at 5% (up 1 point)

· Patriotic Alliance (PA) at 3% (up 1 point)

· Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at a historic low of 3% (down 6.5 points)

· Cumulatively, support for all other parties was at 5% (down 3 points)

The sample size was 1,004 registered voters and the margin of error was ±4%.

Our reading is that the ANC’s support level is now established in the 30% to 40% range. At times when the party’s leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa, can present himself at his most statesmanlike — as when interacting with United States (US) President Donald Trump in the Oval Office, or interacting with world leaders in the G20 context — this spills over into added credibility and higher polling numbers for the ANC.

Conversely, at times when the party is exposed for its poor governance and anti-growth policies — as when Mr Ramaphosa signed the Expropriation Act into law, and when the ANC tried to force through a tax hike — this makes it vulnerable to attacks by its political opposition, primarily the DA, which benefitted when it was seen to be standing up to the ANC.

IRR polling has found low support for key ANC policies among the general public and also among ANC supporters. These policies include expropriation without compensation, employment equity, and race-based preferential procurement.

The EFF is facing several problems. It is an even fiercer proponent of these unpopular policies than the ANC. It is also suffering the consequences of no longer being the new thing that excites jaded voters. That role has been taken over by the MKP. Finally, as a personality-based party focused on Julius Malema, it is highly vulnerable to the effects of a decline in trust in its leader. As Mr Malema has lost many of his top lieutenants to the MKP, he is seen to be no longer fully in charge of his party. This perception of weakness is fatal to perceptions of the party’s effectiveness and will also affect its ability to fundraise.

Shivambu exits stage left

In the latest iteration of MKP instability, Floyd Shivambu — its recently demoted secretary general, who played an important role in establishing the party’s constitution, founding branches, and introducing systems — has been excluded from a list of nine persons the party is appointing to become Members of Parliament. While the official reason for Mr Shivambu’s demotion was that he had gone on an unsanctioned trip to see fugitive pastor Shepherd Bushiri in Malawi, Mr Shivambu now says that he was removed from his position after being accused of wanting to overthrow former President Jacob Zuma as MKP party leader.

On Thursday last week, Mr Shivambu said he would “never resign” from the MKP. He also denied any intention of joining the ANC, which he described as “directionless” and “in collaboration with the white system”, as well as the EFF, which he described as “a cult” that provided “no room for sound ideological reasoning”.

However, at the same time, he announced that he would be starting consultations to establish whether there was appetite for a new political party. This will be a tall order in a political environment that is growing tired of proliferating one-man startups. But he might succeed in attracting disgruntled EFF members and supporters, thereby contributing to the further weakening of his former political home.

Suing the state

The Japanese insurer of Toyota South Africa, Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance, has brought a case against Transnet, the KwaZulu-Natal Department of Transport and the eThekwini Municipality for flood damages to the Toyota vehicle assembly plant in 2022. The claim is for R6.54 billion and could create a costly precedent for the South African state if successful.

The suit alleges that defendants failed to maintain waterways and drainage systems, as a consequence of which Toyota’s Prospecton plant was flooded and had to be closed for four months. Much of the machinery had to be dismantled and rebuilt because it was jammed by tonnes of mud and silt, causing almost R4.5 billion in plant repair and rehabilitation costs, while the business interruption cost a further R2 billion.

The companies that have suffered damages because the South African state has failed to do its job are a legion. They range from the mining industry, which incurred billions of Rands in losses because of rail and port failures; to Astral Foods, which had to create its own water supply for its chicken plant near Standerton because the municipality failed to do so; to Clover, which had to relocate its cheese factory in Lichtenburg, North West to Queensburgh, KwaZulu-Natal because of ongoing poor service delivery. That is without even including the innumerable businesses whose operations have been disrupted by loadshedding, potholed roads and incompetent municipalities. As a result, the Durban High Court might be reluctant to make a strong finding against the accused state entities — because doing so could be enormously costly to a fiscally weak state.

Manufacturing takes a hit

South Africa’s weakened domestic manufacturing industry finds itself under increased threat. It has already had to deal with multiple upheavals to global trade and repeated hits to global investment sentiment throughout 2025. Now, a manufacturing survey — conducted by the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) for Absa — found that export sales contracted in the second quarter as the global trading environment is becoming increasingly challenging and domestic demand is contracting.

Despite the relative stability of the Government of National Unity and interest rate cuts by the South African Reserve Bank, South African businesses and consumers continue to operate under serious and numerous domestic policy constraints. The BER reports: “Insufficient demand as a constraint is increasing as the trading environment becomes more difficult due to low growth and trade policy uncertainties. Both domestic demand and export sales declined in 2025Q2. The decline in domestic sales was broad-based, with all subsectors recording a decline.”

Rising electricity costs and unstable electricity supply were top of the list of issues impacting the most on manufacturing. Globally, “constrained supply chain issues and strained diplomatic relations between SA and the US” are significantly affecting the transport sector as well as the food and beverages industry. In the CRA’s forthcoming Macro Review, we analyse the state of South Africa’s manufacturing and mining sectors.

Middle East conflict escalates, risk of recession

As the Israel-Iran war entered its second week the US entered the fray, striking three Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan on Saturday 21 June. US B-2A Spirit stealth bombers are reported to have dropped 12 “bunker buster” bombs on Fordow, with 2 bombs dropped on Natanz and 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles fired at Natanz and Isfahan from US Navy submarines.

This represents a significant setback for the Iranian government’s plans to develop a nuclear weapon. Having a nuclear bomb would offer Iran offensive capability against Israel, while also acting as a deterrent against attacks. Instead, Iran has lost control over its airspace to Israel and is fast running out of ballistic missiles and launchers with which to counterattack.

Israel is actively targeting Iran’s military leadership, while encouraging internal revolt. The US supports these efforts through sanctions and diplomacy but remains cautious about committing ground forces or increasing its physical presence in the region. Although regime change in Iran is desirable for both Israel and the US, it is highly uncertain whether this will be achieved. Historically, external attacks on Iran have bolstered nationalist sentiment, and the regime has framed recent aggression as foreign interference to rally support. Despite internal discontent, the regime retains the tools to maintain power in the short term.

As to global economic implications, the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran is a key maritime chokepoint susceptible to disruption. Every day roughly 20 million barrels of oil are transported through the strait. Serious disruptions to this flow, for example if Iran were to mine it, would push oil to above $100 per barrel. This could tip the already weakening global economy into recession.