SA pins a target on its back

19 January 2026 – How did the US respond to Iran’s participation in a naval exercise with South Africa? Who’s in charge of SA’s military? How is China’s People’s Liberation Army getting support from South Africa? What’s the status of US congressional legislation on South Africa? Will AGOA be renewed – and will SA be included? How does the Employment Equity Act limit career prospects, including of black employees?

SA pins a target on its back

South Africa’s latest naval exercise with China, Iran, and Russia has provoked the ire of the United States (US).

From 9 to 16 January 2026 South Africa hosted Exercise Will for Peace 2026, a week-long naval drill off Cape Town involving warships from China, Russia, Iran, and several BRICS Plus partners.

South African officials described it as cooperation on maritime safety, search and rescue, and protecting sea lanes, but China’s military clearly led many of the activities. This was framed as part of a broader maritime cooperation among BRICS and associated nations.

Notably, India, which currently chairs BRICS, did not participate in the naval exercise. The Ministry of External Affairs made it clear the exercise was a “South African initiative” involving some BRICS members but was not a regular or institutionalised BRICS activity and did not include all founding members of the bloc.

The US publicly criticised the drill, especially Iran’s participation. The chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senator Jim Risch, posted on X: “South Africa’s ANC-led government’s foreign policy hides behind a claim of non-alignment, yet its military hosts drills with America’s chief adversaries.” He acknowledged and condoned President Donald Trump’s treatment of the South African government as “an adversary of America,” and advocated stronger action.

The US Embassy in Pretoria also condemned South Africa for hosting Iranian ships while significant domestic repression continued in Iran, writing on X: “It is particularly unconscionable that South Africa welcomed Iranian security forces as they were shooting, jailing, and torturing Iranian citizens engaging in peaceful political activity South Africans fought so hard to gain for themselves.”

Who’s in charge of SA’s military?

Under circumstances that are not entirely clear, President Cyril Ramaphosa reportedly instructed that Iran’s role be limited to observer status to avoid diplomatic fallout with Washington. Confusion over whether that directive was followed has led the defence ministry to launch an internal probe into how Iran actually participated.

South Africa’s handling of Will for Peace has dented its international credibility. On one hand, it insists on a neutral, independent foreign policy. On the other, its actions appear aligned with the strategic interests of China, Iran, and Russia.

Iran’s participation drew US rebuke and required a presidential directive to limit engagement – a directive that appears not to have been heeded, raising additional concerns over South Africa’s competence and sincerity.

This inconsistency weakens Pretoria’s claim to neutrality and invites scepticism from both Western partners and domestic critics who see the country as pulled into great-power competition. The fallout will be South Africa’s to bear, not China’s nor Russia’s. The South African government should take note of which countries melted away when it was confronted with greater global scrutiny and pressure.

South African support for the Chinese military

In addition to these events, the US separately alleges that a South African training institution, the Test Flying Academy of South Africa (TFASA), is providing China’s military with Western-origin aviation training.

US officials described TFASA as a South African front, founded in 2003 with the support of the South African government, for transferring NATO aviation expertise, operational knowledge, and sensitive military technology to the Chinese military, including through the recruitment of former NATO pilots.

Last week the US Justice Department announced that it was launching forfeiture proceedings against two advanced mobile classrooms, seized in transit from TFASA to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The classrooms, described as “mission crew trainers”, were designed to use flight simulator software to train PLA aviators in the use of anti-submarine warfare aircraft and airborne warning and control systems.

Congress trains its guns on SA

Such events make it more likely that a raft of legislative measures targeting South Africa and currently before the US Congress will gain traction.

Six separate bills pertinent to South Africa are currently in Congress but have yet to pass: four in the House of Representatives and two in the Senate. One House bill and both Senate bills explicitly mention Washington’s displeasure with South Africa’s relationship with Iran, China, and Russia.

Bills introduced in Congress expire if not passed by both chambers and signed by the President by the end of the two-year congressional term. If they expire, they must be reinitroduced in the next Congress. The current term began on 3 January 2025 and ends on 3 January 2027. With midterm elections in November 2026, lawmakers have limited time to pass the bills.

Washington’s view on South Africa has grown increasingly hostile over the past year. In December 2025, Senator John Kennedy called South Africa a “unique problem for America”, saying “they are our enemy right now” and “buddies with all of our enemies”, to which US Trade Representative (USTR) Ambassador Jamieson Greer responded that this was why South Africa was treated differently than other African countries.

Rising US interventionism is emerging as one of the most consequential political risks for South Africa in 2026. US action on Venezuela, Iran and Greenland shows growing appetite to intervene beyond US borders and is likely to affect commercial outcomes for the South African government and firms alike in 2026 and beyond.

AGOA revival on the cards

Last Monday the US House of Representatives passed a bill that would renew Washington’s preferential trade programme – the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) – for eligible sub-Saharan African countries through to December 2028.

The House approved the AGOA extension, which would provide duty-free access to the US market, by a vote of 340 to 54. The bill is fully retroactive. If enacted, it would trigger the refund of duties paid to the US since the programme expired on 1 October 2025.

The bill will next go to the Senate, where it will compete with another AGOA bill put forward in the Senate by Mr Kennedy. This bill explicitly intends to exclude South Africa from the programme.

Whichever of the two AGOA bills passes, the inclusion of South Africa in the programme remains highly unlikely. The bill in its current form gives the executive branch the authority to determine eligibility. In a December 2025 Senate subcommittee hearing, the US Trade Representative said he was “happy to consider [separating South Africa and AGOA]”.

BEE’s anti-black effects

Last week Thursday marked the deadline for South African employers employing over 50 staff to submit their race-based employment equity plans under the amended Employment Equity Act and regulations.

A study by IRR Legal, released on the same day, found that over 60,000 members of the South African Police Service face a modern-day colour bar under the act and its regulations.

Under the rules, employers must reach certain racial and gender targets at various organisational levels. When a target – say, that for black men – is exceeded, then applicants belonging to that category can be denied promotion to that level, or denied appointment to the role if applying from outside.

In the police service, over 36,000 black men are currently in positions where they cannot be promoted because black men are “over-represented” at the organisational level above them.

In total, almost 63,000 SAPS employees currently find themselves in the position of having their career prospects blocked in this way because of their race and gender, out of a workforce of around 184,000.

Under the SAPS employment equity plan, there is also a ban on the appointment of coloured and white women to positions in top management. This is because the organisation’s target for coloured and white women in top management is zero. 

While these kinds of rules have been progressively introduced at SAPS and other public institutions, the amended Employment Equity Act means that since 1 September 2025, they also apply to all private companies. Race and gender targets are now being applied to around 7.5 million workers in the formal sector, many of whom will also be barred from appointment or advancement because of their race and gender.

For a country like South Africa, which is struggling to attract investment, stimulate economic growth and reduce unemployment, rules of this nature put progress and broad-based prosperity further out of reach.