Who’s in charge of SA’s defence force?

18 August 2025 — Is President Ramaphosa in charge of the SANDF? Can another trade delegation to Washington succeed? What do the latest jobs numbers mean for the GNU? Will the National Dialogue yield anything of value? Are President Trump's policies driving up inflation?

Who’s in charge of SA’s defence force?

The Chief of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF), General Rudzani Maphwanya, last week made an unexpected visit to Iran.

He reportedly held at least three meetings with high-ranking members of the Iranian military, at which he emphasised that South Africa and Iran shared common goals and called for political and military ties between the two countries to be strengthened. He said that his visit carried “a political message” and added that it came “at the best possible time to express our heartfelt sentiments to the peace-loving people of Iran”.

The general’s visit undermines Pretoria’s efforts to mend ties with Washington and secure a trade deal. The United States considers Iran a hostile power and a leading state sponsor of terrorism. General Maphwanya’s visit reinforces the impression that South Africa considers itself to be closely aligned with Iran, contradicting the government’s stated non-alignment policy.

Within 24 hours, South Africa’s international relations and defence departments distanced the government from the general’s comments and clarified that only the president and the international relations department set foreign policy. However, the minister of defence, Angie Motshekga, who approved the trip, defended General Maphwanya.

The Presidency said that President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is Commander-in-Chief of the SANDF, neither knew of nor sanctioned General Maphwanya’s visit.  If true, the president will have to act swiftly and decisively against the defence minister and the military chief. Otherwise, he will have shown himself not to be in charge of the country’s foreign relations or armed forces.

Knock, knock, knocking on Washington’s door

News of General Maphwanya’s excursion coincided with an announcement from Deputy President Paul Mashatile on Thursday that South Africa would be sending a new delegation to the United States (US) to work on solving  trade issues. The initiative will reportedly be headed by the trade minister, Parks Tau, and the finance minister, Enoch Godongwana.

The current Trump tariffs represent an urgent threat to export-dependent sectors of the South African economy, particularly the automotive and agricultural sectors, with tens of thousands of jobs potentially on the line. But with South Africa showing no movement on the core issues raised by the US, and now with a renewed focus on South Africa’s relationship with Iran, the prospects are low that the latest delegation will achieve much.

Last week, the US State Department released its 2024 country reports on human rights practices. The report on South Africa said that the human rights situation had worsened significantly, citing the passing of the Expropriation Act, abuses against racial minorities and arbitrary or unlawful killings as examples. South Africa’s international relations department said the report was inaccurate and deeply flawed and that it failed to reflect reality. This serves as a further point of disagreement between Pretoria and the Washington, signalling an ongoing deterioration of the relationship.

The jobless queue grows even longer

Mr Ramaphosa described the South African economy as being in a “state of emergency” two weeks ago. The latest unemployment figures bear out this assessment.

The official unemployment rate for South Africans aged 15-64 rose by 0.3 points in the second quarter, to 33.2%. For reference, the rate stood at 26.5% in the same period of 2005 and at 25% in 2015.

Unemployment on the expanded definition, which includes discouraged job seekers, rose to 42.9%. Of the 8.4 million South Africans who are unemployed, 6.4 million (76.6%) are considered long-term unemployed, having been without work for more than 12 months.

South Africa has the highest unemployment rate among BRICS countries. In Q4 2024 South Africa’s unemployment rate was at 31.9%, significantly higher than Brazil’s 6.2%, Russia’s 2.3%, India’s 6.5%, and China’s 5.1%. Other developing countries, such as Vietnam and Mexico, also have considerably lower rates, at 2.2% and 2.8%, respectively. Many developed nations have similarly low rates, like Poland at 2.7% and Germany at 3.4%, for example.

South Africa’s high rate of youth unemployment is especially worrisome, with 46.1% of people aged 15-34 years and 62.4% of those aged 15-24 years unable to find work.

The ANC-led government is doubling down on policies such as the national minimum wage, employment equity and BEE, which are significant contributors to South Africa’s low economic growth and high joblessness. Such laws increase business uncertainty, reduce the willingness to hire, and force more people into unemployment. With no positive adjustments to these policies, the probability is low that growth will rise, or unemployment will drop.

The Government of National Unity set the improvement of the growth rate and lowering of the unemployment rate as its measures of success. Thus far, it has fallen well short on both.

The national dialogue kicks off

The government-led National Dialogue kicked off on Friday with an opening convention. As expected, the event has provided South Africans with a prominent platform to identify the ANC as “accused number one” when it comes to South Africa’s lack of development.

Critics were quick to point out that nobody was better suited to answering some of the questions posed by Mr Ramaphosa in his opening address, such as “Why do clinics run out of medicine? Why do taps run out of water?”, than the ANC itself.

Conceptually, the National Dialogue places the ANC in a dilemma. If it allows it to unfold undirected, it risks placing itself in the crosshairs and stoking even greater disgruntlement and voter rejection. Conversely, if it stage-manages the process, both the National Dialogue and the ANC lose legitimacy and credibility. If it does neither, the entire process threatens to dissolve into a shambles.

The first two days of the months-long National Dialogue initiative point towards the third outcome. Delegates who attended the meeting objected to being spoken down to, demanded more talking time, and effectively criticised the process for being a monologue presenting itself as a dialogue.

The so-called “legacy foundations”, which strongly supported the National Dialogue initially, have withdrawn from the early phases of the process and were reportedly considering meeting on 20 August to discuss ways to start a separate national dialogue.

The National Dialogue is shaping up to be a costly, unproductive exercise in which Mr Ramaphosa and his ANC colleagues will have to face angry, frustrated South Africans voicing their long-running unhappiness with South Africa’s direction of travel.

US inflation

The latest US inflation data for July 2025 shows mixed signals amid ongoing tariff pressures. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% monthly and 2.7% annually, slightly below the expected 2.8% yearly increase. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually, aligning with forecasts but marking the fastest core pace in five months.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged 0.9% monthly, far exceeding the anticipated 0.2%, and 3.3% yearly, the largest monthly jump since June 2022. Core PPI also rose 0.9% against a 0.3% expectation, signalling upstream cost pressures.

July's actual readings were cooler than feared for CPI but hotter for PPI, suggesting businesses are absorbing some costs while others filter through.

This has tempered Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations, with markets now pricing 1-2 cuts for 2025. The Fed, holding rates at 4.25% to 4.50%, remains cautious, prioritising data over tariff-induced volatility, which officials view as potentially temporary one-time shocks.

President Donald Trump’s tariffs, imposed on nearly 100 countries with rates up to 50% in some cases, are linked to these developments. Economists note modest price impacts so far as firms eat costs to avoid passing on them to consumers.

However, projections warn of rising inflation (up to 3.2%-4% by year-end) and slower growth: the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development slashed its US 2025 GDP forecast to 1.6% from 2.2%, citing tariffs, policy uncertainty, and reduced immigration.